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Development Trajectory of South Sudan
South Sudan, the world’s youngest nation, has already had a long political history that spans conflict between the government, opposing forces, and their respective allied militias, as well as intercommunal violence that has resulted in the deaths, injuries, and displacement of millions of civilians (HRW, 2024). Borrowing data from African Economic Outlook 2023 analysis of the continent’s macroeconomic and political landscape. This article explores the opportunities and limitations for developing countries like South Sudan. We can reflect on South Sudan’s development trajectory by combining data with the African Economic Outlook Report and other resources. Thirteen years post-independence, the state is nowhere near the Sudanese dream. South Sudan’s development has been characterized by significant challenges; the African Development Bank indicates that South Sudan’s economy contracted by 4.6% in 2022 (AfDB, 2023). South Sudan’s economic growth has been significantly challenged by political instability, poor governance, and the impacts of COVID-19.
The question of progression or regression is ambiguous and broad, and one cannot come to a conclusion. The study by the African Development Bank has laid down several indicators of Development Progression and Regression. For example, the country’s GDP has declined over the years, leading to a staggering economy and severe economic challenges. Continuous conflicts and high levels of insecurity have halted economic activities time and time again, displacing millions of people and leading to a contraction in economic output (IMF, 2024). Adding on to that, hyperinflation has been a frequent challenge, with the rates reported to be as high as 3000% over the years; this has impacted South Sudan’s ability to purchase and resulted in aggravating poverty levels. Another crucial challenge is the war in Sudan. The influx of over 630,000 refugees and returnees from the Sudan conflict has increased pressure on the population’s limited access to food, water, and essential health services due to years of armed conflicts and intercommunal violence. The port of Sudan has also been a significant contributor to the South Sudanese economy. This has halted crude oil exports, which has significantly affected the economy. Furthermore, the high unemployment and underemployment rates can easily be interpreted as regression. The rates are very high, especially among the youth, who make up a more significant fraction of the population and are forced to indulge in illicit activities or join armed forces (ILO, 2024). Last but not least, South Sudan is among the lowest-ranked nations on the Human Development Index (HDI). The country’s literacy rates, life expectancy, and healthcare access are by far below the average. This money, through entrepreneurship, can be utilized to contribute to the growth of the country. Another often alienated factor is the legacy of colonization. Colonization wasn’t a period in history; it was a systematic process of domination that laid the ground for today’s challenges in Africa. The legacy of colonization in South Sudan still lingers despite its inactive absence. This is evident in the country’s social, political, and economic structure. The colonialists aimed to weaken the African’s political structure to rule out resistance quickly. Overcoming the created division is complex and must be achieved through curating and implementing inclusive policies that respect ethnic and cultural diversity. More than ever, there is a need to support grassroots movements that advocate equitable access to resource distribution and political representation. Only when everyone is equally represented can we unite and heal from the fractures of colonialism? Furthermore, grassroots peace-building efforts can complement national efforts, leading to regional stabilization and increasing productivity. The AfDB has not discussed how floods and droughts have affected agriculture and settlement. Floods in the lowlands of Jonglei and Upper Nile state have been a primary driver of displacement and have savaged much of the development made over the years. Therefore, incorporating climate-smart strategies in long-term development agendas is essential.
The report for AfDB has yet to address some opportunities and limitations that could contribute to South Sudan’s development trajectory. Firstly, through the black tax and investment, the South Sudanese diaspora could provide the much-needed capital and expertise in developing the country (IOM, 2023). In 2021 alone, South Sudan received US$1.236 billion, accounting for 23.9 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). However, the main problem in the country is the mismanagement of these funds. Financial literacy should be highly advocated in the region. This money, through entrepreneurship, can be utilized to contribute to the growth of the country. Another often alienated factor is the legacy of colonization. Colonization wasn’t a period in history; it was a systematic process of domination that laid the ground for today’s challenges in Africa. The legacy of colonization in South Sudan still lingers despite its inactive absence. This is evident in the country’s social, political, and economic structure. The colonialists aimed to weaken the African’s political structure to rule out resistance quickly.
Overcoming the created division is complex and must be achieved through curating and implementing inclusive policies that respect ethnic and cultural diversity. More than ever, there is a need to support grassroots movements that advocate equitable access to resource distribution and political representation. Only when everyone is equally represented can we unite and heal from the fractures of colonialism? Furthermore, grassroots peace-building efforts can complement national efforts, leading to regional stabilization and increasing productivity. The AfDB has not discussed how floods and droughts have affected agriculture and settlement. Floods in the lowlands of Jonglei and Upper Nile state have been a primary driver of displacement and have savaged much of the development made over the years. Therefore, incorporating climate-smart strategies in long-term development agendas is essential.
South Sudan’s development trajectory is a blend of both challenges and opportunities. As much as regression outweighs the progression, we cannot be blind to the strides the South Sudanese are making to bring the situation under control.
What vision for South Sudan? With the vision of Africa set as 2063, individual states, regional cooperations, and the African Union are making strides towards overcoming their challenges and developing their countries. By 2063, South Sudan can overcome its past challenges, growing in peace, prosperity, and development. There is room to unite with strong institutions, effective governance, and a strong and sustainable economy. By 2063, South Sudan should have climbed the Human Development Index to at least 0.750. This will be characterized by a rise in the mean years of study exceeding 15 years, a higher life expectancy of at least 75 years, and a lower mortality rate. I anticipate a sharp rise in GDP per capita to 10,000 USD. This future vision will need determination, perseverance, and sacrifice to achieve the following steps.
1. Peace and Reconciliation. The major setback to South Sudan’s development is the crippling war and high levels of security that have forced several people to flee the country and internally displaced others, halting all economic activities. Therefore, there is a need for a genuine dialogue between conflicting parties, forgiveness, and building a shared national identity beyond tribal lines.
2. Institutional Strengthening: Another vital contributor to South Sudan is failing institutions. South Sudan has some of the weakest institutions, ranging from healthcare to academics to government and public facilities. There needs to be transparency and accountability in all government institutions. The rule of law is absent in most institutions, like the judiciary, the labor sector, law enforcement, and public administrations. For this future to be realized, there needs to be a change in how these institutions operate, ensuring ethics are in all outings.
3. Economic Diversification: Two things define South Sudan: a gatekeeping state and a mono-mineral economy. South Sudan is heavily dependent on oil exports, which leaves it vulnerable to shocks when there are price fluctuations. South Sudan must diversify its economy beyond oil dependency by investing in agriculture, infrastructure, renewable energy, and other production sectors to create more jobs and stabilize the economy, reducing poverty. Suppose there is more production in different fields. In that case, we will have a diverse economy, which may solve the political competition to control the state as the revenue is evenly distributed throughout the country, not just on borders and customs posts.
4. Infrastructure Development: South Sudan is way behind in terms of infrastructure. The country needs to focus on telecommunication networks, roads, and public amenities to enhance its economy and improve the lives of its population.
5. Environmental Sustainability: South Sudan needs to focus on conserving the environment. Natural calamities like floods and droughts have played a key role in holding the state’s development agendas. South Sudan should manage its natural resources and protect its rich biodiversity. Implementing conservation policies and promoting renewable energy and eco-friendly practices will achieve this goal.
South Sudan still has a long way to go, but combining the above practices under exemplary leadership and regional cooperation with the East African Community and the African Union and trading blocks can open the way to Vision 2063.
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