South Sudan's Power Shift: A Calculated Gamble for Civilian Rule or Loyalty?

The social media rants went viral, with praise for the White Army flowing in from the Nuer community across the globe, but this only angered the SPLM, who felt their sovereign authority was under threat by a militia group that lived within its borders. The war then turned ethnic as the videos clearly showed a service man dragged and maimed while the audience chanted “Jang,” meaning Dinka. What was even more stressful was how images of the execution of the late Maj. Gen Dak (May his soul rest in peace) and his soldiers went viral online; truly disheartening times for their families. This wasn’t taken lightly, and revenge looked imminent from the speeches during the late’s funeral. 

As the Swahili famously say, “Mkono wa serikali ni mrefu,” translated to ‘The government has a longer hand.’ The event turned out to be a show of power on who has the final say, and the government went out on their capacities, disregarding the innocent human life in this war zone, and dropped cluster munitions indiscriminately, killing scores of innocent civilians in violation of international laws under the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM) that prohibits the use, production, stockpiling, and transfer of cluster munitions by its signatories and South Sudan is a binding state. The bombardments that lasted about three days were a signal to the White Army that they might make a point, but they won’t over run a government that sits in power in Juba from Nasir, but to us the civilians, they were a show of a merciless government that would do what it takes to win no matter the collateral.

But that was only a small fraction of what was to follow. Afterwards, the first vice president was put under house arrest alongside several other IO executives believed to have had a hand in the war in Nasir. Then the government went out attacking the opposition bases, further weakening them. All these moves were condemned by the international community, citing a possible return to civil war, but the government, this time round, decided to remain deaf to their advice, opting to use its own strategies to stabilize itself. 

Then came the dismissals that had begun years back with less influential generals, culminating in the dramatic removal and house arrest of General Akol Koor Kuc, the once-powerful director of the Internal Security Bureau of the National Security Service (ISB-NSS) in December last year, which made headlines and sent shockwaves throughout the region. The sweeping wave of political appointments and dismissals that seemed like a one-sided hornbill’s noise have now begun to quietly redefine the power structure in the world’s youngest nation. Recently, three prominent politicians who thought the world revolved around them were sent packing, in a shock of tales. Long-serving military-political heavyweights such as Gen. Kuol Manyang Juuk, Gen. Awet Akot, and Gen. James Wani Igga have now also been shown the door and are allegedly rumoured to be under house arrest as well, and that answers a lot of questions that we may have about where this nation is heading. Is this shake-up simply a reshuffle, or is it a deliberate strategy to weaken the military's grip on national politics?

With add-ons, the president has been keen on transferring ministerial roles to the civilian population, though this has been biased, with the majority of these roles going to the sons and daughters of the same men being dismissed. Whether this move is a consolation or a credit to their capabilities is highly debatable. But yes, this move shows how diluting military power may be the only way to stabilize governance and give democracy a fighting chance. For a country that was founded on armed struggle and that formed its inaugural government, this move is both historic and risky. The SPLM that led South Sudan to independence has since become the face of a state plagued by economic collapse, deep insecurity, and humanitarian catastrophe. After years of cyclical violence, corruption, and lost opportunity, President Kiir, even with his often irrational judgment, has seen that the continued military dominance will not solve anything, not even after he steps down. He has now decided to play his final card, removing the old guard and paving the way for a new civilian era.

However, we, the sons and daughters of peasants, have reason to believe this transition is a consolidation of power rather than a handover to civilian rule. We are all informed of the rumours that Dr. Benjamin is the president’s son-in-law; there’s no marital proof, but we don’t care, we know so, and we can see this loophole. We see this transition to be more of loyalty than reform. After all, the 1st deputy chairman was taken by the 1st family from grass to grace, and therefore, the public skepticism is valid. We feel detached from a process that still operates far from the transparency and inclusivity we hoped independence would bring.

But let’s stop being emotional and reason this out; President Kiir and his agemates' tenure has brought the country no closer to peace or prosperity. We’d rather gamble on a potential civilian leadership, however flawed or unpopular; it may offer us a better shot at ending this cycle of suffering than continuing to live in this plagued militarized state. With our mineral wealth, what we lack is continuity in peace and leadership grounded in public interest. This shift may not solve this, but if in any way it signals a departure from gun-ruled politics, we might have our first yellow light, and this is something many South Sudanese have prayed for since that fateful plane crash.

Now, the eyes of the nation turn to see whether this gamble delivers a stable, people-centered future or folds under the weight of its own contradictions. Without doubt, Dr Benjamin will be president, and there’s nothing me, uncle Kuol Manyang, Wani Igga, and Awet Akot can do but sit down and complain.

Now we remain to ask, does Dr Benjamin desire economic and infrastructural progress, or is he only after protecting the legacy of the first family?